To 3.5%, the unemployment rate has decreased. The household survey focused on small businesses was 179K, which is not nearly as robust.
Therefore, the economy was in a recession for the first half. Upon release of the positive jobs data, we’ll assess Q3. Despite a decline in market pricing indicators, our severe inflation problem persists.
To reduce its balance sheet and raise its Fed funds target rate above the inflation rate, the Fed still has work to do. That will probably land somewhere, but 2.5% is still far too little. My estimation for base core inflation is probably between 5 and 6%, but let’s celebrate the fact that there are more Americans working.
BIDEN TOUTS THE JOB REPORT WHILE SIGNING BIPARTISAN BILLS TO PUSH BACK AGAINST COVID RELIEF FRAUDPERPETRATORS
By the way, we wouldn’t need to worry about 5 to 6% wage increases if we had good supply-side economic policies, reduced tax rates, and deregulation, but instead, our economy is too regulated, there are many risks, and more are on the way.
Tax reductions and the king dollar are examples of good policy. While the latter keeps prices down, the former creates growth incentives. The ideal policy mix is that one. The Manchin-Schumer behemoth is being chiseled out, which is another piece of good news.
The worst element of this stupid measure has probably been eliminated thanks to Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Minimum corporate book earnings will be replaced by taxable profits, at least insofar as 100% expensing of machinery and technology is concerned.
We don’t yet have the legislative language, so we don’t fully understand this agreement, but as far as I can tell, the provision that would have killed business investment has been deleted. So congratulations to Senator Sinema. She deleted the portion of this absurd measure that would have caused the most economic harm. I’m sure she watches our show every night and is constantly taking notes.
Additionally, the carried interest provision has been eliminated, which taxed private equity funds according to capital gains with a three-year holding period. Of course, the IRS DC swamp rat provision to target conservative organizations and small companies remains. Drug price limits, which the CBO is actually rating as a price increase rather than a cost decrease, and, of course, the war against fossil fuels—call let’s it $430 billion worth—giving the EPA new regulatory authority over greenhouse gases and who knows what else—remain as well.
Next comes social spending, which now includes fresh Obamacare subsidies. Along with the $430 billion fossil fuel war and the $285 billion CHIPS package, that will cost roughly $250 billion.
The White House supports the inflation reduction act despite the CBO’s warning that inflation won’t decrease as a result.
As a result, the total amount of spending is almost a trillion dollars. It won’t be reimbursed. It might increase inflation, and there are still various tax increase cats and dogs in this obscure pocket of left-wing, woke nirvana.
It’s a silly, stupid bill, as I said. America is not in need of it. Only the far left desires it. It won’t support the economy. It won’t stop inflation. If you hadn’t already guessed, it will lead to far higher deficits and debt, and that’s not really my cup of tea.